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Soleil vs Damissa — Championnat National 2019

Soleil
Soleil
FT
2 – 2
Damissa
Damissa
4/16/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 7Stade de Lokossa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Soleil31%
×Draw29%
Damissa39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Soleil
0.99
Damissa
1.15

Damissa creates 16% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 107 away

creates per match

Soleil
1.12
Damissa
0.93

allows per match

Soleil
1.37
Damissa
0.86

finishing

Soleil+0.00on par
Damissa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soleil ↓

Damissa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Soleil or draw
61%
Soleil or Damissa
71%
Draw or Damissa
69%

Winning margin

Soleil wins by 2+
12%
Damissa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Soleil 1+ goals
63%
Soleil 2+ goals
26%
Soleil 3+ goals
8%
Damissa 1+ goals
68%
Damissa 2+ goals
32%
Damissa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Soleil (draw refunded)
44%
Damissa (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soleil at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.37 · 59 matches

Damissa away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.86 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soleil attack 1.12 + Damissa defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Damissa attack 0.93 + Soleil defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Soleil scores more
31%
level
29%
Damissa scores more
39%

Damissa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Damissa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Soleil vs Damissa

Soleil and Damissa drew 2-2 in Championnat National on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de Lokossa in Lokossa.