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Soleil vs Avrankou Omnisport — Championnat National 2019

Soleil
Soleil
FT
0 – 3
Avrankou Omnisport
Avrankou Omnisport
1/11/2019Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 11Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa (Cotonou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Soleil43%
×Draw27%
Avrankou Omnisport29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Soleil
1.34
Avrankou Omnisport
1.05

Soleil creates 28% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 74 away

creates per match

Soleil
1.11
Avrankou Omnisport
0.70

allows per match

Soleil
1.40
Avrankou Omnisport
1.57

finishing

Soleil+0.00on par
Avrankou Omnisport+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soleil ↓

Avrankou Omnisport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Soleil or draw
71%
Soleil or Avrankou Omnisport
73%
Draw or Avrankou Omnisport
57%

Winning margin

Soleil wins by 2+
20%
Avrankou Omnisport wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Soleil 1+ goals
74%
Soleil 2+ goals
39%
Soleil 3+ goals
15%
Avrankou Omnisport 1+ goals
65%
Avrankou Omnisport 2+ goals
28%
Avrankou Omnisport 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Soleil (draw refunded)
60%
Avrankou Omnisport (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soleil at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 63 matches

Avrankou Omnisport away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.57 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soleil attack 1.11 + Avrankou Omnisport defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.34

Avrankou Omnisport attack 0.70 + Soleil defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Soleil scores more
43%
level
27%
Avrankou Omnisport scores more
29%

Soleil at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Soleil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Soleil vs Avrankou Omnisport

Avrankou Omnisport beat Soleil 3-0 in Championnat National on January 11, 2019.

The match was played at Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa (Cotonou).