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Soleil vs ASVO — Championnat National 2019

Soleil
Soleil
FT
2 – 1
ASVO
ASVO
5/15/2019Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 31Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa (Cotonou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Soleil31%
×Draw30%
ASVO39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Soleil
0.98
ASVO
1.14

ASVO creates 16% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 113 away

creates per match

Soleil
1.11
ASVO
0.88

allows per match

Soleil
1.39
ASVO
0.85

finishing

Soleil+0.00on par
ASVO+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soleil ↓

ASVO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Soleil or draw
61%
Soleil or ASVO
70%
Draw or ASVO
69%

Winning margin

Soleil wins by 2+
11%
ASVO wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Soleil 1+ goals
62%
Soleil 2+ goals
26%
Soleil 3+ goals
8%
ASVO 1+ goals
68%
ASVO 2+ goals
32%
ASVO 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Soleil (draw refunded)
44%
ASVO (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soleil at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.39 · 62 matches

ASVO away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.85 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soleil attack 1.11 + ASVO defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.98

ASVO attack 0.88 + Soleil defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Soleil scores more
31%
level
30%
ASVO scores more
39%

ASVO at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ASVO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Soleil 2–1 ASVO

Soleil beat ASVO 2-1 in Championnat National on May 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa (Cotonou).