Soleil 1–1 AS Sobemap: Result & Stats

Soleil

FT

1 – 1

AS Sobemap

11/4/2018

Championnat National · Round 1Stade Cotonou II (Porto-Novo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Soleil32%

×Draw29%

AS Sobemap39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SoleilExpected goals in this matchAS Sobemap

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.17

Soleil

1.04

AS Sobemap

1.17

AS Sobemap creates 13% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 108 away

1.11

creates per match

0.94

1.39

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Soleil

1.11

AS Sobemap

0.94

allows per match

Soleil

1.39

AS Sobemap

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Soleil+0.00on par

AS Sobemap+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soleil ↓

AS Sobemap →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Soleil or draw

61%

Soleil or AS Sobemap

71%

Draw or AS Sobemap

68%

Winning margin

Soleil wins by 2+

12%

AS Sobemap wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Soleil 1+ goals

65%

Soleil 2+ goals

28%

Soleil 3+ goals

9%

AS Sobemap 1+ goals

69%

AS Sobemap 2+ goals

33%

AS Sobemap 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Soleil (draw refunded)

45%

AS Sobemap (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soleil at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.39 · 62 matches

AS Sobemap away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.98 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soleil attack 1.11 + AS Sobemap defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

AS Sobemap attack 0.94 + Soleil defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Soleil scores more

32%

level

29%

AS Sobemap scores more

39%

AS Sobemap at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AS Sobemap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff