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Solec K. vs Vineta Wolin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Solec K.
Solec K.
FT
0 – 1
Vineta Wolin
Vineta Wolin
3/16/2024III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Solec K.43%
×Draw22%
Vineta Wolin35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Solec K.
1.86
Vineta Wolin
1.68

Solec K. creates 11% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 51 away

creates per match

Solec K.
1.03
Vineta Wolin
1.27

allows per match

Solec K.
2.09
Vineta Wolin
2.69

finishing

Solec K.+0.00on par
Vineta Wolin+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solec K. ↓

Vineta Wolin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Solec K. or draw
65%
Solec K. or Vineta Wolin
78%
Draw or Vineta Wolin
57%

Winning margin

Solec K. wins by 2+
23%
Vineta Wolin wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Solec K. 1+ goals
84%
Solec K. 2+ goals
55%
Solec K. 3+ goals
28%
Vineta Wolin 1+ goals
81%
Vineta Wolin 2+ goals
50%
Vineta Wolin 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Solec K. (draw refunded)
55%
Vineta Wolin (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solec K. at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.09 · 33 matches

Vineta Wolin away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solec K. attack 1.03 + Vineta Wolin defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 1.86

Vineta Wolin attack 1.27 + Solec K. defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Solec K. scores more
43%
level
22%
Vineta Wolin scores more
35%

Solec K. at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Solec K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Solec K. vs Vineta Wolin

Vineta Wolin beat Solec K. 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Solec Kujawski.