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Solec K. vs Stargard Szczeciński — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Solec K.
Solec K.
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Stargard Szczeciński
Stargard Szczeciński
3/2/2024III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Solec K.26%
×Draw22%
Stargard Szczeciński52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Solec K.
1.31
Stargard Szczeciński
1.94

Stargard Szczeciński creates 48% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 83 away

creates per match

Solec K.
1.03
Stargard Szczeciński
1.80

allows per match

Solec K.
2.09
Stargard Szczeciński
1.60

finishing

Solec K.+0.00on par
Stargard Szczeciński+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solec K. ↓

Stargard Szczeciński →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Solec K. or draw
48%
Solec K. or Stargard Szczeciński
78%
Draw or Stargard Szczeciński
74%

Winning margin

Solec K. wins by 2+
11%
Stargard Szczeciński wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Solec K. 1+ goals
73%
Solec K. 2+ goals
38%
Solec K. 3+ goals
14%
Stargard Szczeciński 1+ goals
86%
Stargard Szczeciński 2+ goals
58%
Stargard Szczeciński 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Solec K. (draw refunded)
33%
Stargard Szczeciński (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solec K. at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.09 · 33 matches

Stargard Szczeciński away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solec K. attack 1.03 + Stargard Szczeciński defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.31

Stargard Szczeciński attack 1.80 + Solec K. defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Solec K. scores more
26%
level
22%
Stargard Szczeciński scores more
52%

Stargard Szczeciński at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stargard Szczeciński will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Solec K. 2–3 Stargard Szczeciński

Stargard Szczeciński beat Solec K. 3-2 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Solec Kujawski.