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Solec K. vs Sokół Kleczew — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Solec K.
Solec K.
FT
0 – 1
Sokół Kleczew
Sokół Kleczew
9/17/2022III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Solec K.27%
×Draw23%
Sokół Kleczew50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Solec K.
1.25
Sokół Kleczew
1.78

Sokół Kleczew creates 42% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 84 away

creates per match

Solec K.
1.03
Sokół Kleczew
1.48

allows per match

Solec K.
2.09
Sokół Kleczew
1.46

finishing

Solec K.+0.00on par
Sokół Kleczew+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solec K. ↓

Sokół Kleczew →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Solec K. or draw
50%
Solec K. or Sokół Kleczew
77%
Draw or Sokół Kleczew
73%

Winning margin

Solec K. wins by 2+
11%
Sokół Kleczew wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Solec K. 1+ goals
71%
Solec K. 2+ goals
36%
Solec K. 3+ goals
13%
Sokół Kleczew 1+ goals
83%
Sokół Kleczew 2+ goals
53%
Sokół Kleczew 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Solec K. (draw refunded)
35%
Sokół Kleczew (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solec K. at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.09 · 33 matches

Sokół Kleczew away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.46 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solec K. attack 1.03 + Sokół Kleczew defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sokół Kleczew attack 1.48 + Solec K. defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Solec K. scores more
27%
level
23%
Sokół Kleczew scores more
50%

Sokół Kleczew at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sokół Kleczew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Solec K. 0–1 Sokół Kleczew

Sokół Kleczew beat Solec K. 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Solec Kujawski.