Solec K. 0–1 Przodkowo: Result & Stats

Solec K.

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Przodkowo

8/6/2022

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Solec K.33%

×Draw24%

Przodkowo42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Solec K.Expected goals in this matchPrzodkowo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.59

Solec K.

1.39

Przodkowo

1.59

Przodkowo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 42 away

1.03

creates per match

1.10

2.09

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Solec K.

1.03

Przodkowo

1.10

allows per match

Solec K.

2.09

Przodkowo

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Solec K.+0.00on par

Przodkowo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solec K. ↓

Przodkowo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Solec K. or draw

58%

Solec K. or Przodkowo

76%

Draw or Przodkowo

67%

Winning margin

Solec K. wins by 2+

15%

Przodkowo wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Solec K. 1+ goals

75%

Solec K. 2+ goals

40%

Solec K. 3+ goals

16%

Przodkowo 1+ goals

80%

Przodkowo 2+ goals

47%

Przodkowo 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Solec K. (draw refunded)

44%

Przodkowo (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solec K. at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.09 · 33 matches

Przodkowo away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solec K. attack 1.03 + Przodkowo defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.39

Przodkowo attack 1.10 + Solec K. defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Solec K. scores more

33%

level

24%

Przodkowo scores more

42%

Przodkowo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Przodkowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff