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Solec K. vs Olimpia Grudziądz — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Solec K.
Solec K.
FT
0 – 4
Olimpia Grudziądz
Olimpia Grudziądz
8/17/2022III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Solec K.12%
×Draw19%
Olimpia Grudziądz69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Solec K.
0.74
Olimpia Grudziądz
2.09

Olimpia Grudziądz creates 182% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Solec K.
1.03
Olimpia Grudziądz
2.09

allows per match

Solec K.
2.09
Olimpia Grudziądz
0.45

finishing

Solec K.+0.00on par
Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solec K. ↓

Olimpia Grudziądz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–213%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Solec K. or draw
31%
Solec K. or Olimpia Grudziądz
81%
Draw or Olimpia Grudziądz
88%

Winning margin

Solec K. wins by 2+
3%
Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Solec K. 1+ goals
52%
Solec K. 2+ goals
17%
Solec K. 3+ goals
4%
Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals
88%
Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals
62%
Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Solec K. (draw refunded)
15%
Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solec K. at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.09 · 33 matches

Olimpia Grudziądz away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solec K. attack 1.03 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.74

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 2.09 + Solec K. defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Solec K. scores more
12%
level
19%
Olimpia Grudziądz scores more
69%

Olimpia Grudziądz at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Olimpia Grudziądz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Solec K. 0–4 Olimpia Grudziądz

Olimpia Grudziądz beat Solec K. 4-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on August 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Solec Kujawski.