Solec K. 2–2 Jarota Jarocin: Result & Stats

Solec K.

FT

2 – 2

Jarota Jarocin

10/1/2022

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Solec K.29%

×Draw23%

Jarota Jarocin48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Solec K.Expected goals in this matchJarota Jarocin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.81

Solec K.

1.37

Jarota Jarocin

1.81

Jarota Jarocin creates 32% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 49 away

1.03

creates per match

1.53

2.09

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Solec K.

1.03

Jarota Jarocin

1.53

allows per match

Solec K.

2.09

Jarota Jarocin

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Solec K.+0.00on par

Jarota Jarocin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solec K. ↓

Jarota Jarocin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Solec K. or draw

52%

Solec K. or Jarota Jarocin

77%

Draw or Jarota Jarocin

71%

Winning margin

Solec K. wins by 2+

13%

Jarota Jarocin wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Solec K. 1+ goals

75%

Solec K. 2+ goals

40%

Solec K. 3+ goals

16%

Jarota Jarocin 1+ goals

84%

Jarota Jarocin 2+ goals

54%

Jarota Jarocin 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Solec K. (draw refunded)

38%

Jarota Jarocin (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solec K. at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.09 · 33 matches

Jarota Jarocin away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.71 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solec K. attack 1.03 + Jarota Jarocin defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.37

Jarota Jarocin attack 1.53 + Solec K. defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Solec K. scores more

29%

level

23%

Jarota Jarocin scores more

48%

Jarota Jarocin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jarota Jarocin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff