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Solares vs Textil Escudo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Solares
Solares
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Textil Escudo
Textil Escudo
12/21/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 18Campo Municipal La Estación

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Solares45%
×Draw27%
Textil Escudo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Solares
1.41
Textil Escudo
1.04

Solares creates 36% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 56 away

creates per match

Solares
0.90
Textil Escudo
0.88

allows per match

Solares
1.20
Textil Escudo
1.91

finishing

Solares+0.00on par
Textil Escudo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solares ↓

Textil Escudo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Solares or draw
72%
Solares or Textil Escudo
73%
Draw or Textil Escudo
55%

Winning margin

Solares wins by 2+
22%
Textil Escudo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Solares 1+ goals
76%
Solares 2+ goals
41%
Solares 3+ goals
17%
Textil Escudo 1+ goals
65%
Textil Escudo 2+ goals
28%
Textil Escudo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Solares (draw refunded)
62%
Textil Escudo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solares at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.20 · 61 matches

Textil Escudo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solares attack 0.90 + Textil Escudo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.41

Textil Escudo attack 0.88 + Solares defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Solares scores more
45%
level
27%
Textil Escudo scores more
28%

Solares at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Solares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Solares 2–1 Textil Escudo

Solares beat Textil Escudo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal La Estación in Medio Cudeyo.