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Solares vs Siete Villas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Solares
Solares
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Siete Villas
Siete Villas
11/11/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Campo Municipal La Estación

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Solares35%
×Draw29%
Siete Villas36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Solares
1.08
Siete Villas
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 91 away

creates per match

Solares
0.90
Siete Villas
0.99

allows per match

Solares
1.20
Siete Villas
1.27

finishing

Solares+0.00on par
Siete Villas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solares ↓

Siete Villas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Solares or draw
64%
Solares or Siete Villas
71%
Draw or Siete Villas
65%

Winning margin

Solares wins by 2+
14%
Siete Villas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Solares 1+ goals
66%
Solares 2+ goals
29%
Solares 3+ goals
10%
Siete Villas 1+ goals
66%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
30%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Solares (draw refunded)
50%
Siete Villas (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solares at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.20 · 61 matches

Siete Villas away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solares attack 0.90 + Siete Villas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.08

Siete Villas attack 0.99 + Solares defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Solares scores more
35%
level
29%
Siete Villas scores more
36%

Siete Villas at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Siete Villas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Solares 0–2 Siete Villas

Siete Villas beat Solares 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal La Estación in Medio Cudeyo.