Solares 1–0 Racing Santander II: Result & Stats

Solares

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Racing Santander II

Diego Parro 35'

9/7/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Campo Municipal La Estación

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Solares24%

×Draw28%

Racing Santander II49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SolaresExpected goals in this matchRacing Santander II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.38

Solares

0.88

Racing Santander II

1.38

Racing Santander II creates 57% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 27 away

0.90

creates per match

1.56

1.20

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Solares

0.90

Racing Santander II

1.56

allows per match

Solares

1.20

Racing Santander II

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Solares+0.00on par

Racing Santander II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solares ↓

Racing Santander II →

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Solares or draw

51%

Solares or Racing Santander II

72%

Draw or Racing Santander II

76%

Winning margin

Solares wins by 2+

Racing Santander II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Solares 1+ goals

59%

Solares 2+ goals

22%

Solares 3+ goals

Racing Santander II 1+ goals

75%

Racing Santander II 2+ goals

40%

Racing Santander II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Solares (draw refunded)

33%

Racing Santander II (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Solares at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.20 · 61 matches

Racing Santander II away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Solares attack 0.90 + Racing Santander II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

Racing Santander II attack 1.56 + Solares defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Solares scores more

24%

level

28%

Racing Santander II scores more

49%

Racing Santander II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Racing Santander II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Diego Parro

61'

Gonzalo Peña← Dani Gómez

61'

L. Ligio← Mario Musy

65'

Pablo Raba← Diego Valdés

68'

Álex Cañizo← Jerin Ramos

70'

Víti Merino← Daniel Mendicute

76'

Lian De La Fuente← Diego Parro

Solares

Racing

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Parro

Bolado

▼

Mendicute

Manager: Javi Roncal

65'▲Pablo Raba←▼Diego Valdés

70'▲Víti Merino←▼Daniel Mendicute

76'▲Lian De La Fuente←▼Diego Parro

Solares substitutes

RabaMerinoFuente

Manager: Richard Alonso

61'▲Gonzalo Peña←▼Dani Gómez

61'▲L. Ligio←▼Mario Musy

68'▲Álex Cañizo←▼Jerin Ramos

Racing Santander II substitutes

PeñaLigioCañizo