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Solares vs Guarnizo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Solares
Solares
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Guarnizo
Guarnizo
1/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Campo Municipal La Estación

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Solares32%
×Draw29%
Guarnizo40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Solares
1.05
Guarnizo
1.21

Guarnizo creates 15% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 111 away

creates per match

Solares
0.90
Guarnizo
1.23

allows per match

Solares
1.20
Guarnizo
1.20

finishing

Solares+0.00on par
Guarnizo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solares ↓

Guarnizo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Solares or draw
60%
Solares or Guarnizo
71%
Draw or Guarnizo
68%

Winning margin

Solares wins by 2+
12%
Guarnizo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Solares 1+ goals
65%
Solares 2+ goals
28%
Solares 3+ goals
9%
Guarnizo 1+ goals
70%
Guarnizo 2+ goals
34%
Guarnizo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Solares (draw refunded)
44%
Guarnizo (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solares at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.20 · 61 matches

Guarnizo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solares attack 0.90 + Guarnizo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

Guarnizo attack 1.23 + Solares defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Solares scores more
32%
level
29%
Guarnizo scores more
40%

Guarnizo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guarnizo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Solares vs Guarnizo

Solares beat Guarnizo 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal La Estación in Medio Cudeyo.