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Solares vs Gimnástica Torrelavega — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Solares
Solares
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Gimnástica Torrelavega
Gimnástica Torrelavega
11/30/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Campo Municipal La Estación

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Solares22%
×Draw27%
Gimnástica Torrelavega51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Solares
0.83
Gimnástica Torrelavega
1.44

Gimnástica Torrelavega creates 73% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 59 away

creates per match

Solares
0.90
Gimnástica Torrelavega
1.68

allows per match

Solares
1.20
Gimnástica Torrelavega
0.76

finishing

Solares+0.00on par
Gimnástica Torrelavega+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solares ↓

Gimnástica Torrelavega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Solares or draw
49%
Solares or Gimnástica Torrelavega
73%
Draw or Gimnástica Torrelavega
78%

Winning margin

Solares wins by 2+
7%
Gimnástica Torrelavega wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Solares 1+ goals
56%
Solares 2+ goals
20%
Solares 3+ goals
5%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 1+ goals
76%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 2+ goals
42%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Solares (draw refunded)
30%
Gimnástica Torrelavega (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solares at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.20 · 61 matches

Gimnástica Torrelavega away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.76 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solares attack 0.90 + Gimnástica Torrelavega defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.83

Gimnástica Torrelavega attack 1.68 + Solares defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Solares scores more
22%
level
27%
Gimnástica Torrelavega scores more
51%

Gimnástica Torrelavega at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gimnástica Torrelavega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Solares 1–2 Gimnástica Torrelavega

Gimnástica Torrelavega beat Solares 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal La Estación in Medio Cudeyo.