Solares vs Cayón: Preview & Prediction

Solares

CANC

22:00

Cayón

5/16/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 38Campo Municipal La Estación

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Solares28%

×Draw28%

Cayón44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SolaresExpected goals in this matchCayón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.33

Solares

0.99

Cayón

1.33

Cayón creates 34% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 13 away

0.90

creates per match

1.46

1.20

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Solares

0.90

Cayón

1.46

allows per match

Solares

1.20

Cayón

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Solares+0.00on par

Cayón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solares ↓

Cayón →

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Solares or draw

56%

Solares or Cayón

72%

Draw or Cayón

72%

Winning margin

Solares wins by 2+

10%

Cayón wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Solares 1+ goals

63%

Solares 2+ goals

26%

Solares 3+ goals

Cayón 1+ goals

74%

Cayón 2+ goals

38%

Cayón 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Solares (draw refunded)

39%

Cayón (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Solares at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.20 · 61 matches

Cayón away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Solares attack 0.90 + Cayón defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Cayón attack 1.46 + Solares defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Solares scores more

28%

level

28%

Cayón scores more

44%

Cayón at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cayón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Solares vs Cayón — Match Preview

Solares face Cayón on May 16, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Solares host Cayón at Campo Municipal La Estación.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Solares vs Cayón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Solares vs Cayón — Match Preview