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Solares vs Atlético Mineros — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Solares
Solares
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Mineros
Atlético Mineros
3/23/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26Campo Municipal La Estación

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Solares45%
×Draw27%
Atlético Mineros28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Solares
1.39
Atlético Mineros
1.05

Solares creates 32% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 34 away

creates per match

Solares
0.90
Atlético Mineros
0.91

allows per match

Solares
1.20
Atlético Mineros
1.88

finishing

Solares+0.00on par
Atlético Mineros+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solares ↓

Atlético Mineros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Solares or draw
72%
Solares or Atlético Mineros
73%
Draw or Atlético Mineros
55%

Winning margin

Solares wins by 2+
21%
Atlético Mineros wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Solares 1+ goals
75%
Solares 2+ goals
40%
Solares 3+ goals
16%
Atlético Mineros 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Mineros 2+ goals
28%
Atlético Mineros 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Solares (draw refunded)
61%
Atlético Mineros (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solares at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.20 · 61 matches

Atlético Mineros away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.88 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solares attack 0.90 + Atlético Mineros defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.39

Atlético Mineros attack 0.91 + Solares defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Solares scores more
45%
level
27%
Atlético Mineros scores more
28%

Solares at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Solares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Solares 1–1 Atlético Mineros

Solares and Atlético Mineros drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal La Estación in Medio Cudeyo.