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Solares vs Atlético Albericia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Solares
Solares
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Albericia
Atlético Albericia
2/11/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Campo Municipal La Estación

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Solares32%
×Draw26%
Atlético Albericia42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Solares
1.17
Atlético Albericia
1.39

Atlético Albericia creates 19% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 108 away

creates per match

Solares
0.90
Atlético Albericia
1.57

allows per match

Solares
1.20
Atlético Albericia
1.44

finishing

Solares+0.00on par
Atlético Albericia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solares ↓

Atlético Albericia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Solares or draw
58%
Solares or Atlético Albericia
74%
Draw or Atlético Albericia
68%

Winning margin

Solares wins by 2+
13%
Atlético Albericia wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Solares 1+ goals
69%
Solares 2+ goals
33%
Solares 3+ goals
11%
Atlético Albericia 1+ goals
75%
Atlético Albericia 2+ goals
40%
Atlético Albericia 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Solares (draw refunded)
43%
Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solares at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.20 · 61 matches

Atlético Albericia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solares attack 0.90 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.17

Atlético Albericia attack 1.57 + Solares defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Solares scores more
32%
level
26%
Atlético Albericia scores more
42%

Atlético Albericia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atlético Albericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Solares 0–2 Atlético Albericia

Atlético Albericia beat Solares 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal La Estación in Medio Cudeyo.