Sola 1–1 Stjørdals-Blink: Result & Stats

Sola

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stjørdals-Blink

S. Sebulonsen 86'

M. Lillebo 90'

6/2/2019

2. Division - Group 1 · Round 8Sola Stadion (Sola)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sola18%

×Draw21%

Stjørdals-Blink61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SolaExpected goals in this matchStjørdals-Blink

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

2.08

Sola

1.03

Stjørdals-Blink

2.08

Stjørdals-Blink creates 102% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.15

creates per match

2.38

1.77

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Sola

1.15

Stjørdals-Blink

2.38

allows per match

Sola

1.77

Stjørdals-Blink

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sola+0.00on par

Stjørdals-Blink+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sola ↓

Stjørdals-Blink →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sola or draw

39%

Sola or Stjørdals-Blink

79%

Draw or Stjørdals-Blink

82%

Winning margin

Sola wins by 2+

6%

Stjørdals-Blink wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Sola 1+ goals

64%

Sola 2+ goals

28%

Sola 3+ goals

9%

Stjørdals-Blink 1+ goals

87%

Stjørdals-Blink 2+ goals

61%

Stjørdals-Blink 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Sola (draw refunded)

23%

Stjørdals-Blink (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sola at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Stjørdals-Blink away — creates 2.38, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sola attack 1.15 + Stjørdals-Blink defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Stjørdals-Blink attack 2.38 + Sola defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sola scores more

18%

level

21%

Stjørdals-Blink scores more

61%

Stjørdals-Blink at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Stjørdals-Blink will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

H. Meinseth← M. Svela

71'

A. Ravndal← J. Brunes

71'

O. Rødahl← F. Vinje

76'

A. Nygaard← J. Tromsdal

78'

S. Sebulonsen← O. Lilleås

86'

S. Sebulonsen

90'

M. Lillebo

Sola

Stjørdals-Blink

12

2

4

15

45

20

▼

Tromsdal

6

▼

11

8

9

24

⚽

13

28

2

23

24

4

14

▼

Brunes

88

▼

Lilleås

16

▼

Svela

9

Eriksen

10

Hinna

Manager: O. Elvestad

56'▲H. Meinseth←▼M. Svela

71'▲A. Ravndal←▼J. Brunes

78'▲S. Sebulonsen←▼O. Lilleås

Sola substitutes

11Meinseth7Ravndal8Sebulonsen3Stålesen5Grelland12Lindstrand25Jonassen

Manager: R. Vikvang

71'▲O. Rødahl←▼F. Vinje

76'▲A. Nygaard←▼J. Tromsdal

Stjørdals-Blink substitutes

99Rødahl5Nygaard22Hagen16Magnusson25Husby