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Sola vs Sandnes Ulf II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Sola
Sola
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
I. A. Rodge 81'
F. Steinsnes-Asbo 4'
J. Aune 68', 11', 9'
10/6/20243. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 24Sola Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sola69%
×Draw16%
Sandnes Ulf II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sola
3.00
Sandnes Ulf II
1.39

Sola creates 116% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sola
2.46
Sandnes Ulf II
1.00

allows per match

Sola
1.77
Sandnes Ulf II
3.54

finishing

Sola+0.00on par
Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sola ↓

Sandnes Ulf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Sola or draw
85%
Sola or Sandnes Ulf II
84%
Draw or Sandnes Ulf II
31%

Winning margin

Sola wins by 2+
49%
Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sola 1+ goals
95%
Sola 2+ goals
79%
Sola 3+ goals
56%
Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
75%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
40%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sola (draw refunded)
82%
Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sola at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Sandnes Ulf II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sola attack 2.46 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 3.00

Sandnes Ulf II attack 1.00 + Sola defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Sola scores more
69%
level
16%
Sandnes Ulf II scores more
15%

Sola at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Sola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
F. Steinsnes-Asbo
9'
J. Aune
11'
J. Aune
68'
J. Aune
81'
I. A. Rodge
90'
I. Ostrem Jenssen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sola vs Sandnes Ulf II

Sandnes Ulf II beat Sola 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on October 6, 2024.

Goals: F. Steinsnes-Asbo (4'), J. Aune (9', 11', 68'), I. A. Rodge (81').

The match was played at Sola Stadion in Sola.