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Sola vs Nardo — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Sola
Sola
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Nardo
Nardo
5/11/20192. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Round 5Sola Stadion (Sola)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sola44%
×Draw25%
Nardo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sola
1.53
Nardo
1.23

Sola creates 24% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sola
1.15
Nardo
0.69

allows per match

Sola
1.77
Nardo
1.92

finishing

Sola+0.00on par
Nardo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sola ↓

Nardo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sola or draw
69%
Sola or Nardo
75%
Draw or Nardo
56%

Winning margin

Sola wins by 2+
22%
Nardo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sola 1+ goals
78%
Sola 2+ goals
45%
Sola 3+ goals
20%
Nardo 1+ goals
71%
Nardo 2+ goals
35%
Nardo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sola (draw refunded)
59%
Nardo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sola at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Nardo away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sola attack 1.15 + Nardo defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.53

Nardo attack 0.69 + Sola defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sola scores more
44%
level
25%
Nardo scores more
31%

Sola at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sola 2 – 3 Nardo

Nardo beat Sola 3-2 in 2. Division - Group 1 on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Sola Stadion (Sola).