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Sola vs hodd — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Sola
Sola
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
hodd
hodd
9/22/20192. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Round 21Sola Stadion (Sola)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sola26%
×Draw23%
hodd51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sola
1.19
hodd
1.78

hodd creates 50% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 47 away

creates per match

Sola
1.15
hodd
1.79

allows per match

Sola
1.77
hodd
1.23

finishing

Sola+0.00on par
hodd+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sola ↓

hodd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sola or draw
49%
Sola or hodd
77%
Draw or hodd
74%

Winning margin

Sola wins by 2+
10%
hodd wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Sola 1+ goals
70%
Sola 2+ goals
33%
Sola 3+ goals
12%
hodd 1+ goals
83%
hodd 2+ goals
53%
hodd 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Sola (draw refunded)
33%
hodd (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sola at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

hodd away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.23 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sola attack 1.15 + hodd defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

hodd attack 1.79 + Sola defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sola scores more
26%
level
23%
hodd scores more
51%

hodd at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "hodd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sola vs hodd

hodd beat Sola 1-0 in 2. Division - Group 1 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Sola Stadion (Sola).