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Sola vs Haugesund II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Sola
Sola
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Haugesund II
Haugesund II
3/31/20253. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 1SR-Bank Mini Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sola39%
×Draw20%
Haugesund II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sola
2.08
Haugesund II
2.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sola
1.92
Haugesund II
1.54

allows per match

Sola
2.69
Haugesund II
2.23

finishing

Sola+0.00on par
Haugesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sola ↓

Haugesund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Sola or draw
59%
Sola or Haugesund II
80%
Draw or Haugesund II
61%

Winning margin

Sola wins by 2+
21%
Haugesund II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sola 1+ goals
87%
Sola 2+ goals
61%
Sola 3+ goals
34%
Haugesund II 1+ goals
88%
Haugesund II 2+ goals
62%
Haugesund II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Sola (draw refunded)
49%
Haugesund II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sola at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

Haugesund II away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sola attack 1.92 + Haugesund II defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.08

Haugesund II attack 1.54 + Sola defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sola scores more
39%
level
20%
Haugesund II scores more
41%

Haugesund II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Haugesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sola vs Haugesund II

Sola beat Haugesund II 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on March 31, 2025.

The match was played at SR-Bank Mini Arena in Solakrossen.