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Sola vs Djerv — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Sola
Sola
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Djerv
Djerv
5/28/20223. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 8Sola Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sola45%
×Draw22%
Djerv33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sola
1.98
Djerv
1.67

Sola creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Sola
2.21
Djerv
1.97

allows per match

Sola
1.37
Djerv
1.76

finishing

Sola+0.00on par
Djerv+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sola ↓

Djerv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Sola or draw
67%
Sola or Djerv
78%
Draw or Djerv
55%

Winning margin

Sola wins by 2+
25%
Djerv wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sola 1+ goals
86%
Sola 2+ goals
59%
Sola 3+ goals
31%
Djerv 1+ goals
81%
Djerv 2+ goals
50%
Djerv 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Sola (draw refunded)
58%
Djerv (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sola at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Djerv away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.76 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sola attack 2.21 + Djerv defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.98

Djerv attack 1.97 + Sola defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sola scores more
45%
level
22%
Djerv scores more
33%

Sola at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sola 2 – 2 Djerv

Sola and Djerv drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Sola Stadion in Sola.