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Sola vs Bremnes — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Sola
Sola
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Bremnes
Bremnes
T. Asbo 81'
M. Svela 47'
D. Nilsen 74'
M. Pedersen 72', 30'
M. Eidesvik 49'
5/14/20223. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 6Sola Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sola66%
×Draw17%
Bremnes17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sola
2.67
Bremnes
1.28

Sola creates 109% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 26 away

creates per match

Sola
2.21
Bremnes
1.19

allows per match

Sola
1.37
Bremnes
3.12

finishing

Sola+0.00on par
Bremnes+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sola ↓

Bremnes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Sola or draw
83%
Sola or Bremnes
83%
Draw or Bremnes
34%

Winning margin

Sola wins by 2+
45%
Bremnes wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sola 1+ goals
93%
Sola 2+ goals
74%
Sola 3+ goals
49%
Bremnes 1+ goals
72%
Bremnes 2+ goals
37%
Bremnes 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sola (draw refunded)
80%
Bremnes (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sola at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Bremnes away — creates 1.19, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sola attack 2.21 + Bremnes defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.67

Bremnes attack 1.19 + Sola defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sola scores more
66%
level
17%
Bremnes scores more
17%

Sola at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
S. Kyllingstad
30'
M. Pedersen
47'
M. Svela
49'
M. Eidesvik
72'
M. Pedersen
74'
D. Nilsen
81'
T. Asbo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sola vs Bremnes

Bremnes beat Sola 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on May 14, 2022.

Goals: M. Pedersen (30', 72'), M. Svela (47'), M. Eidesvik (49'), D. Nilsen (74'), T. Asbo (81').

The match was played at Sola Stadion in Sola.