Sola 2–1 Brattvåg: Result & Stats

Sola

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Brattvåg

J. Brunes 78'

S. Grelland 65'

H. Leine 27'

4/27/2019

2. Division - Group 1 · Round 3Sola Stadion (Sola)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sola34%

×Draw23%

Brattvåg42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SolaExpected goals in this matchBrattvåg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.73

Sola

1.54

Brattvåg

1.73

Brattvåg creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 80 away

1.15

creates per match

1.68

1.77

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Sola

1.15

Brattvåg

1.68

allows per match

Sola

1.77

Brattvåg

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sola+0.00on par

Brattvåg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sola ↓

Brattvåg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sola or draw

58%

Sola or Brattvåg

77%

Draw or Brattvåg

66%

Winning margin

Sola wins by 2+

16%

Brattvåg wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sola 1+ goals

79%

Sola 2+ goals

45%

Sola 3+ goals

20%

Brattvåg 1+ goals

82%

Brattvåg 2+ goals

52%

Brattvåg 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Sola (draw refunded)

45%

Brattvåg (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sola at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Brattvåg away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.94 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sola attack 1.15 + Brattvåg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.54

Brattvåg attack 1.68 + Sola defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sola scores more

34%

level

23%

Brattvåg scores more

42%

Brattvåg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brattvåg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

H. Singh← S. Kamel

27'

H. Leine

46'

O. Lilleås← J. Hinna

62'

M. Svela← H. Meinseth

65'

S. Grelland

69'

S. Beite← A. Jonassen

71'

J. Brunes← M. Madsen

78'

J. Brunes

81'

K. Halvorsen← S. Tomren

Sola

Brattvåg

1

13

17

3

10

4

▼

Tomren

6

Husby

9

▼

Kamel

19

Solnørdal

18

⚽

Leine

11

▼

13

28

2

5

⚽

23

24

4

20

▼

Madsen

10

▼

Hinna

11

▼

Meinseth

8

Sebulonse

Manager: O. Elvestad

46'▲O. Lilleås←▼J. Hinna

62'▲M. Svela←▼H. Meinseth

71'▲J. Brunes←▼M. Madsen

Sola substitutes

88Lilleås16Svela14Brunes3Stålesen7Ravndal12Lindstrand18Høyland

Manager: R. Skovdahl

24'▲H. Singh←▼S. Kamel

69'▲S. Beite←▼A. Jonassen

81'▲K. Halvorsen←▼S. Tomren

Brattvåg substitutes

7Singh27Beite14Halvorsen2Mordal12Neydson20Hagbø

Match Recap: Sola vs Brattvåg

Sola beat Brattvåg 2-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on April 27, 2019.

Goals: H. Leine (27'), S. Grelland (65'), J. Brunes (78').

The match was played at Sola Stadion (Sola).

Sola vs Brattvåg — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sola vs Brattvåg