Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SOL vs Stella — Ligue 1 2019

SOL
SOL
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Stella
Stella
9/20/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 1Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

SOL36%
×Draw29%
Stella35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SOL
1.12
Stella
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 79 away

creates per match

SOL
1.14
Stella
1.01

allows per match

SOL
1.18
Stella
1.10

finishing

SOL+0.00on par
Stella+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SOL ↓

Stella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

SOL or draw
65%
SOL or Stella
71%
Draw or Stella
64%

Winning margin

SOL wins by 2+
15%
Stella wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SOL 1+ goals
67%
SOL 2+ goals
31%
SOL 3+ goals
10%
Stella 1+ goals
66%
Stella 2+ goals
30%
Stella 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SOL (draw refunded)
51%
Stella (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SOL at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.18 · 88 matches

Stella away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SOL attack 1.14 + Stella defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.12

Stella attack 1.01 + SOL defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

SOL scores more
36%
level
29%
Stella scores more
35%

SOL at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "SOL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SOL 1 – 1 Stella

SOL and Stella drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on September 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Robert Champroux in Abidjan.