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SOL vs ASEC Mimosas — Ligue 1 2019

SOL
SOL
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
ASEC Mimosas
ASEC Mimosas
12/1/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 11Complexe Sportif de Bingerville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

SOL26%
×Draw28%
ASEC Mimosas46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SOL
0.90
ASEC Mimosas
1.30

ASEC Mimosas creates 44% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 89 away

creates per match

SOL
1.14
ASEC Mimosas
1.42

allows per match

SOL
1.18
ASEC Mimosas
0.66

finishing

SOL+0.00on par
ASEC Mimosas+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SOL ↓

ASEC Mimosas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

SOL or draw
54%
SOL or ASEC Mimosas
72%
Draw or ASEC Mimosas
74%

Winning margin

SOL wins by 2+
9%
ASEC Mimosas wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

SOL 1+ goals
59%
SOL 2+ goals
23%
SOL 3+ goals
6%
ASEC Mimosas 1+ goals
73%
ASEC Mimosas 2+ goals
37%
ASEC Mimosas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SOL (draw refunded)
36%
ASEC Mimosas (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SOL at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.18 · 88 matches

ASEC Mimosas away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.66 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SOL attack 1.14 + ASEC Mimosas defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.90

ASEC Mimosas attack 1.42 + SOL defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SOL scores more
26%
level
28%
ASEC Mimosas scores more
46%

ASEC Mimosas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ASEC Mimosas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: SOL 1–1 ASEC Mimosas

SOL and ASEC Mimosas drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif de Bingerville in Bingerville.