Sol de Mayo 0–1 Liniers Bahía Blanca

Sol de Mayo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Liniers Bahía Blanca

4/9/2023

Torneo Federal A · Group B - 5Estadio Sol De Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sol de Mayo52%

×Draw26%

Liniers Bahía Blanca22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sol de MayoExpected goals in this matchLiniers Bahía Blanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.86

Sol de Mayo

1.49

Liniers Bahía Blanca

0.86

Sol de Mayo creates 73% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 33 away

1.37

creates per match

0.58

1.14

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Sol de Mayo

1.37

Liniers Bahía Blanca

0.58

allows per match

Sol de Mayo

1.14

Liniers Bahía Blanca

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sol de Mayo+0.00on par

Liniers Bahía Blanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sol de Mayo ↓

Liniers Bahía Blanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sol de Mayo or draw

78%

Sol de Mayo or Liniers Bahía Blanca

74%

Draw or Liniers Bahía Blanca

48%

Winning margin

Sol de Mayo wins by 2+

26%

Liniers Bahía Blanca wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sol de Mayo 1+ goals

77%

Sol de Mayo 2+ goals

44%

Sol de Mayo 3+ goals

19%

Liniers Bahía Blanca 1+ goals

58%

Liniers Bahía Blanca 2+ goals

21%

Liniers Bahía Blanca 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sol de Mayo (draw refunded)

71%

Liniers Bahía Blanca (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sol de Mayo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

Liniers Bahía Blanca away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sol de Mayo attack 1.37 + Liniers Bahía Blanca defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.49

Liniers Bahía Blanca attack 0.58 + Sol de Mayo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sol de Mayo scores more

52%

level

26%

Liniers Bahía Blanca scores more

22%

Sol de Mayo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sol de Mayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff