Sol de América 1–0 Sarmiento de La Banda

Sol de América

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sarmiento de La Banda

J. Cabanas 88'

4/5/2026

Torneo Federal A · Round 3Estadio Antonio Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sol de América52%

×Draw28%

Sarmiento de La Banda20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sol de AméricaExpected goals in this matchSarmiento de La Banda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.71

Sol de América

1.35

Sarmiento de La Banda

0.71

Sol de América creates 90% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 38 away

1.58

creates per match

0.82

0.60

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Sol de América

1.58

Sarmiento de La Banda

0.82

allows per match

Sol de América

0.60

Sarmiento de La Banda

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sol de América+0.00on par

Sarmiento de La Banda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sol de América ↓

Sarmiento de La Banda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sol de América or draw

80%

Sol de América or Sarmiento de La Banda

72%

Draw or Sarmiento de La Banda

48%

Winning margin

Sol de América wins by 2+

25%

Sarmiento de La Banda wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sol de América 1+ goals

74%

Sol de América 2+ goals

39%

Sol de América 3+ goals

15%

Sarmiento de La Banda 1+ goals

51%

Sarmiento de La Banda 2+ goals

16%

Sarmiento de La Banda 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sol de América (draw refunded)

73%

Sarmiento de La Banda (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sol de América at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.60 · 52 matches

Sarmiento de La Banda away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sol de América attack 1.58 + Sarmiento de La Banda defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sarmiento de La Banda attack 0.82 + Sol de América defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sol de América scores more

52%

level

28%

Sarmiento de La Banda scores more

20%

Sol de América at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sol de América will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

88'

J. Cabanas

Sol

Sarmiento

1

4

2

6

3

8

5

10

11

7

9

1

4

2

6

3

8

5

10

11

7

9

Sol de América substitutes

20Cabanas

Match Recap: Sol de América vs Sarmiento de La Banda

Sol de América beat Sarmiento de La Banda 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on April 5, 2026.

Goals: J. Cabanas (88').

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Romero in Formosa.

Sol de América vs Sarmiento de La Banda — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sol de América vs Sarmiento de La Banda