SOL DE America 1–0 Pastoreo: Result & Stats

SOL DE America

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pastoreo

5/16/2023

Division Intermedia · Round 7Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

SOL DE America43%

×Draw28%

Pastoreo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SOL DE AmericaExpected goals in this matchPastoreo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.99

SOL DE America

1.27

Pastoreo

0.99

SOL DE America creates 28% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 60 away

1.26

creates per match

1.25

0.74

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

SOL DE America

1.26

Pastoreo

1.25

allows per match

SOL DE America

0.74

Pastoreo

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SOL DE America+0.00on par

Pastoreo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SOL DE America ↓

Pastoreo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

SOL DE America or draw

71%

SOL DE America or Pastoreo

72%

Draw or Pastoreo

57%

Winning margin

SOL DE America wins by 2+

19%

Pastoreo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SOL DE America 1+ goals

72%

SOL DE America 2+ goals

36%

SOL DE America 3+ goals

14%

Pastoreo 1+ goals

63%

Pastoreo 2+ goals

26%

Pastoreo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

SOL DE America (draw refunded)

60%

Pastoreo (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SOL DE America at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.74 · 38 matches

Pastoreo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SOL DE America attack 1.26 + Pastoreo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Pastoreo attack 1.25 + SOL DE America defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SOL DE America scores more

43%

level

28%

Pastoreo scores more

29%

SOL DE America at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SOL DE America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff