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SOL DE America vs Martin Ledesma — Division Intermedia 2018

SOL DE America
SOL DE America
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Martin Ledesma
Martin Ledesma
9/25/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 28Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

SOL DE America48%
×Draw29%
Martin Ledesma23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SOL DE America
1.30
Martin Ledesma
0.80

SOL DE America creates 63% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 61 away

creates per match

SOL DE America
1.26
Martin Ledesma
0.87

allows per match

SOL DE America
0.74
Martin Ledesma
1.34

finishing

SOL DE America+0.00on par
Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SOL DE America ↓

Martin Ledesma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

SOL DE America or draw
77%
SOL DE America or Martin Ledesma
71%
Draw or Martin Ledesma
52%

Winning margin

SOL DE America wins by 2+
23%
Martin Ledesma wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

SOL DE America 1+ goals
73%
SOL DE America 2+ goals
37%
SOL DE America 3+ goals
14%
Martin Ledesma 1+ goals
55%
Martin Ledesma 2+ goals
19%
Martin Ledesma 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

SOL DE America (draw refunded)
68%
Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SOL DE America at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.74 · 38 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SOL DE America attack 1.26 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.30

Martin Ledesma attack 0.87 + SOL DE America defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SOL DE America scores more
48%
level
29%
Martin Ledesma scores more
23%

SOL DE America at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SOL DE America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: SOL DE America 2–1 Martin Ledesma

SOL DE America beat Martin Ledesma 2-1 in Division Intermedia on September 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni in Asunción.