SOL DE America 4–3 General Diaz: Result & Stats

SOL DE America

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

General Diaz

6/4/2018

Division Profesional - Apertura · Round 21Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

SOL DE America47%

×Draw24%

General Diaz29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SOL DE AmericaExpected goals in this matchGeneral Diaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.31

SOL DE America

1.73

General Diaz

1.31

SOL DE America creates 32% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 33 away

1.20

creates per match

1.12

1.50

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

SOL DE America

1.20

General Diaz

1.12

allows per match

SOL DE America

1.50

General Diaz

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SOL DE America+0.00on par

General Diaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SOL DE America ↓

General Diaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

SOL DE America or draw

71%

SOL DE America or General Diaz

76%

Draw or General Diaz

53%

Winning margin

SOL DE America wins by 2+

25%

General Diaz wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

SOL DE America 1+ goals

82%

SOL DE America 2+ goals

52%

SOL DE America 3+ goals

25%

General Diaz 1+ goals

73%

General Diaz 2+ goals

38%

General Diaz 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

SOL DE America (draw refunded)

62%

General Diaz (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SOL DE America at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.50 · 64 matches

General Diaz away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SOL DE America attack 1.20 + General Diaz defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.73

General Diaz attack 1.12 + SOL DE America defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SOL DE America scores more

47%

level

24%

General Diaz scores more

29%

SOL DE America at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SOL DE America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff