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SOL DE America vs Club River Plate — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

SOL DE America
SOL DE America
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Club River Plate
Club River Plate
2/15/2021Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 3Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

SOL DE America41%
×Draw27%
Club River Plate33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SOL DE America
1.34
Club River Plate
1.17

SOL DE America creates 15% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 31 away

creates per match

SOL DE America
1.20
Club River Plate
0.84

allows per match

SOL DE America
1.50
Club River Plate
1.48

finishing

SOL DE America+0.00on par
Club River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SOL DE America ↓

Club River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SOL DE America or draw
67%
SOL DE America or Club River Plate
73%
Draw or Club River Plate
59%

Winning margin

SOL DE America wins by 2+
19%
Club River Plate wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SOL DE America 1+ goals
74%
SOL DE America 2+ goals
39%
SOL DE America 3+ goals
15%
Club River Plate 1+ goals
69%
Club River Plate 2+ goals
33%
Club River Plate 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SOL DE America (draw refunded)
56%
Club River Plate (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SOL DE America at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.50 · 64 matches

Club River Plate away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SOL DE America attack 1.20 + Club River Plate defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

Club River Plate attack 0.84 + SOL DE America defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SOL DE America scores more
41%
level
27%
Club River Plate scores more
33%

SOL DE America at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SOL DE America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Profesional - Apertura: SOL DE America 1–1 Club River Plate

SOL DE America and Club River Plate drew 1-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on February 15, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni in Asunción.