SOL DE America 2–1 2 de Mayo: Result & Stats

SOL DE America

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

2 de Mayo

6/26/2023

Division Intermedia · Round 14Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

SOL DE America46%

×Draw28%

2 de Mayo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SOL DE AmericaExpected goals in this match2 de Mayo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.93

SOL DE America

1.33

2 de Mayo

0.93

SOL DE America creates 43% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 77 away

1.26

creates per match

1.12

0.74

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

SOL DE America

1.26

2 de Mayo

1.12

allows per match

SOL DE America

0.74

2 de Mayo

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SOL DE America+0.00on par

2 de Mayo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SOL DE America ↓

2 de Mayo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

SOL DE America or draw

74%

SOL DE America or 2 de Mayo

72%

Draw or 2 de Mayo

54%

Winning margin

SOL DE America wins by 2+

21%

2 de Mayo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

SOL DE America 1+ goals

74%

SOL DE America 2+ goals

38%

SOL DE America 3+ goals

15%

2 de Mayo 1+ goals

61%

2 de Mayo 2+ goals

24%

2 de Mayo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

SOL DE America (draw refunded)

64%

2 de Mayo (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SOL DE America at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.74 · 38 matches

2 de Mayo away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SOL DE America attack 1.26 + 2 de Mayo defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

2 de Mayo attack 1.12 + SOL DE America defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SOL DE America scores more

46%

level

28%

2 de Mayo scores more

26%

SOL DE America at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SOL DE America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff