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SOL DE America vs 12 de Octubre — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

SOL DE America
SOL DE America
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
12 de Octubre
12 de Octubre
4/23/2021Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 13Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

SOL DE America38%
×Draw27%
12 de Octubre35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SOL DE America
1.27
12 de Octubre
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 31 away

creates per match

SOL DE America
1.20
12 de Octubre
0.94

allows per match

SOL DE America
1.50
12 de Octubre
1.35

finishing

SOL DE America+0.00on par
12 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SOL DE America ↓

12 de Octubre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SOL DE America or draw
65%
SOL DE America or 12 de Octubre
73%
Draw or 12 de Octubre
62%

Winning margin

SOL DE America wins by 2+
17%
12 de Octubre wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SOL DE America 1+ goals
72%
SOL DE America 2+ goals
36%
SOL DE America 3+ goals
14%
12 de Octubre 1+ goals
70%
12 de Octubre 2+ goals
34%
12 de Octubre 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SOL DE America (draw refunded)
52%
12 de Octubre (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SOL DE America at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.50 · 64 matches

12 de Octubre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SOL DE America attack 1.20 + 12 de Octubre defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

12 de Octubre attack 0.94 + SOL DE America defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SOL DE America scores more
38%
level
27%
12 de Octubre scores more
35%

SOL DE America at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "SOL DE America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Profesional - Apertura: SOL DE America 0–3 12 de Octubre

12 de Octubre beat SOL DE America 3-0 in Division Profesional - Apertura on April 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni in Asunción.