Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sokol Živanice vs Zbuzany — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
FT
0 – 1
Zbuzany
Zbuzany
7/31/20213. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 1Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sokol Živanice53%
×Draw22%
Zbuzany25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Živanice
1.94
Zbuzany
1.28

Sokol Živanice creates 52% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sokol Živanice
1.66
Zbuzany
1.26

allows per match

Sokol Živanice
1.30
Zbuzany
2.21

finishing

Sokol Živanice+0.00on par
Zbuzany+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Živanice ↓

Zbuzany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sokol Živanice or draw
75%
Sokol Živanice or Zbuzany
78%
Draw or Zbuzany
47%

Winning margin

Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
30%
Zbuzany wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
86%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
58%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
30%
Zbuzany 1+ goals
72%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
37%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
68%
Zbuzany (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Živanice at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Zbuzany away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Živanice attack 1.66 + Zbuzany defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.94

Zbuzany attack 1.26 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sokol Živanice scores more
53%
level
22%
Zbuzany scores more
25%

Sokol Živanice at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sokol Živanice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Živanice vs Zbuzany

Zbuzany beat Sokol Živanice 1-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on July 31, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi in Živanice.