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Sokol Živanice vs Kolín — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Kolín
Kolín
8/6/20223. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 1Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Sokol Živanice52%
×Draw23%
Kolín25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Živanice
1.84
Kolín
1.21

Sokol Živanice creates 52% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 62 away

creates per match

Sokol Živanice
1.66
Kolín
1.13

allows per match

Sokol Živanice
1.30
Kolín
2.03

finishing

Sokol Živanice+0.00on par
Kolín+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Živanice ↓

Kolín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sokol Živanice or draw
75%
Sokol Živanice or Kolín
77%
Draw or Kolín
48%

Winning margin

Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
29%
Kolín wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
84%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
55%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
28%
Kolín 1+ goals
70%
Kolín 2+ goals
34%
Kolín 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
67%
Kolín (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Živanice at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Kolín away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.03 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Živanice attack 1.66 + Kolín defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.84

Kolín attack 1.13 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sokol Živanice scores more
52%
level
23%
Kolín scores more
25%

Sokol Živanice at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sokol Živanice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Sokol Živanice 2–3 Kolín

Kolín beat Sokol Živanice 3-2 in 3. liga - CFL B on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi in Živanice.