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Kolín vs Sokol Živanice — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Kolín
Kolín
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
4/19/20233. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 16Mestský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Kolín50%
×Draw23%
Sokol Živanice27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolín
1.81
Sokol Živanice
1.29

Kolín creates 40% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 64 away

creates per match

Kolín
1.74
Sokol Živanice
1.14

allows per match

Kolín
1.45
Sokol Živanice
1.88

finishing

Kolín+0.00on par
Sokol Živanice+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolín ↓

Sokol Živanice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kolín or draw
73%
Kolín or Sokol Živanice
77%
Draw or Sokol Živanice
50%

Winning margin

Kolín wins by 2+
27%
Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kolín 1+ goals
84%
Kolín 2+ goals
54%
Kolín 3+ goals
27%
Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
72%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
37%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kolín (draw refunded)
64%
Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolín at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.45 · 62 matches

Sokol Živanice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolín attack 1.74 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.81

Sokol Živanice attack 1.14 + Kolín defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kolín scores more
50%
level
23%
Sokol Živanice scores more
27%

Kolín at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kolín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Kolín 2–1 Sokol Živanice

Kolín beat Sokol Živanice 2-1 in 3. liga - CFL B on April 19, 2023.

The match was played at Mestský stadion in Kolín V.