Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sokol Živanice vs Jablonec II — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jablonec II
Jablonec II
3/18/20233. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 18Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Sokol Živanice45%
×Draw25%
Jablonec II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Živanice
1.59
Jablonec II
1.28

Sokol Živanice creates 24% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 81 away

creates per match

Sokol Živanice
1.66
Jablonec II
1.26

allows per match

Sokol Živanice
1.30
Jablonec II
1.52

finishing

Sokol Živanice+0.00on par
Jablonec II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Živanice ↓

Jablonec II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sokol Živanice or draw
69%
Sokol Živanice or Jablonec II
75%
Draw or Jablonec II
55%

Winning margin

Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
23%
Jablonec II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
80%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
47%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
21%
Jablonec II 1+ goals
72%
Jablonec II 2+ goals
37%
Jablonec II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
59%
Jablonec II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Živanice at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Jablonec II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.52 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Živanice attack 1.66 + Jablonec II defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.59

Jablonec II attack 1.26 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sokol Živanice scores more
45%
level
25%
Jablonec II scores more
31%

Sokol Živanice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sokol Živanice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Živanice vs Jablonec II

Sokol Živanice and Jablonec II drew 1-1 in 3. liga - CFL B on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi in Živanice.