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Sokol Živanice vs Chlumec nad Cidlinou — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
FT
1 – 2
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
9/4/20213. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 6Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Sokol Živanice46%
×Draw23%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Živanice
1.75
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.38

Sokol Živanice creates 27% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 65 away

creates per match

Sokol Živanice
1.66
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.45

allows per match

Sokol Živanice
1.30
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.85

finishing

Sokol Živanice+0.00on par
Chlumec nad Cidlinou+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Živanice ↓

Chlumec nad Cidlinou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sokol Živanice or draw
70%
Sokol Živanice or Chlumec nad Cidlinou
77%
Draw or Chlumec nad Cidlinou
54%

Winning margin

Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
25%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
83%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
52%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
25%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou 1+ goals
75%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou 2+ goals
40%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
60%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Živanice at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Chlumec nad Cidlinou away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.85 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Živanice attack 1.66 + Chlumec nad Cidlinou defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.75

Chlumec nad Cidlinou attack 1.45 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sokol Živanice scores more
46%
level
23%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou scores more
30%

Sokol Živanice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sokol Živanice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Sokol Živanice 1–2 Chlumec nad Cidlinou

Chlumec nad Cidlinou beat Sokol Živanice 2-1 in 3. liga - CFL B on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi in Živanice.