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Chlumec nad Cidlinou vs Sokol Živanice — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Chlumec nad Cidlinou
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
4/23/20233. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 23Městský fotbalový stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Chlumec nad Cidlinou49%
×Draw23%
Sokol Živanice28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.79
Sokol Živanice
1.31

Chlumec nad Cidlinou creates 37% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 64 away

creates per match

Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.71
Sokol Živanice
1.14

allows per match

Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.48
Sokol Živanice
1.88

finishing

Chlumec nad Cidlinou+0.00on par
Sokol Živanice+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chlumec nad Cidlinou ↓

Sokol Živanice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Chlumec nad Cidlinou or draw
72%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou or Sokol Živanice
77%
Draw or Sokol Živanice
51%

Winning margin

Chlumec nad Cidlinou wins by 2+
27%
Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chlumec nad Cidlinou 1+ goals
83%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou 2+ goals
53%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou 3+ goals
26%
Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
73%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
38%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chlumec nad Cidlinou (draw refunded)
63%
Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chlumec nad Cidlinou at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.48 · 65 matches

Sokol Živanice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chlumec nad Cidlinou attack 1.71 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sokol Živanice attack 1.14 + Chlumec nad Cidlinou defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chlumec nad Cidlinou scores more
49%
level
23%
Sokol Živanice scores more
28%

Chlumec nad Cidlinou at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chlumec nad Cidlinou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Chlumec nad Cidlinou 0–1 Sokol Živanice

Sokol Živanice beat Chlumec nad Cidlinou 1-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Městský fotbalový stadion in Chlumec nad Cidlinou.