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Sokol Živanice vs Arsenal Česká Lípa — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Arsenal Česká Lípa
Arsenal Česká Lípa
4/27/20243. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 24Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Sokol Živanice44%
×Draw23%
Arsenal Česká Lípa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Živanice
1.71
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.43

Sokol Živanice creates 20% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 47 away

creates per match

Sokol Živanice
1.66
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.55

allows per match

Sokol Živanice
1.30
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.77

finishing

Sokol Živanice+0.00on par
Arsenal Česká Lípa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Živanice ↓

Arsenal Česká Lípa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sokol Živanice or draw
68%
Sokol Živanice or Arsenal Česká Lípa
77%
Draw or Arsenal Česká Lípa
56%

Winning margin

Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
23%
Arsenal Česká Lípa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
82%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
51%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
24%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 1+ goals
76%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 2+ goals
42%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
58%
Arsenal Česká Lípa (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Živanice at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Arsenal Česká Lípa away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.77 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Živanice attack 1.66 + Arsenal Česká Lípa defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.71

Arsenal Česká Lípa attack 1.55 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sokol Živanice scores more
44%
level
23%
Arsenal Česká Lípa scores more
32%

Sokol Živanice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sokol Živanice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Živanice vs Arsenal Česká Lípa

Arsenal Česká Lípa beat Sokol Živanice 2-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi in Živanice.