Sokol Zápy 3–0 Hradec Králové II: Result & Stats

Sokol Zápy

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hradec Králové II

T. Weis 89'

O. Kocourek 68'

T. Matejka 53'

8/28/2024

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 17Stadion TJ Sokol Zápy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Sokol Zápy59%

×Draw21%

Hradec Králové II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokol ZápyExpected goals in this matchHradec Králové II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.13

Sokol Zápy

2.10

Hradec Králové II

1.13

Sokol Zápy creates 86% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 81 away

2.40

creates per match

1.32

0.93

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Sokol Zápy

2.40

Hradec Králové II

1.32

allows per match

Sokol Zápy

0.93

Hradec Králové II

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokol Zápy+0.00on par

Hradec Králové II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Zápy ↓

Hradec Králové II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sokol Zápy or draw

80%

Sokol Zápy or Hradec Králové II

79%

Draw or Hradec Králové II

41%

Winning margin

Sokol Zápy wins by 2+

36%

Hradec Králové II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sokol Zápy 1+ goals

88%

Sokol Zápy 2+ goals

62%

Sokol Zápy 3+ goals

35%

Hradec Králové II 1+ goals

68%

Hradec Králové II 2+ goals

31%

Hradec Králové II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sokol Zápy (draw refunded)

75%

Hradec Králové II (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Zápy at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.93 · 82 matches

Hradec Králové II away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.80 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Zápy attack 2.40 + Hradec Králové II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

Hradec Králové II attack 1.32 + Sokol Zápy defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sokol Zápy scores more

59%

level

21%

Hradec Králové II scores more

20%

Sokol Zápy at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sokol Zápy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

J. Zeman

44'

N. Khrolenok

53'

T. Matejka

59'

L. Hruska← L. Hruska

64'

T. Matejka

68'

O. Kocourek

70'

J. Duben

73'

M. Hampl← M. Hampl

73'

T. Fejgl← T. Fejgl

78'

K. Zbrozek← M. Petrlak

78'

O. Kocourek← K. Nazarenko

78'

F. Zoubek← F. Zoubek

86'

J. Mares← T. Weis

87'

V. Blazek← V. Blazek

87'

T. Kares← T. Kares

89'

T. Weis

90+2'

K. Nazarenko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff