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Sokol Tasovice vs Vysočina Jihlava II — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Sokol Tasovice
Sokol Tasovice
FT
3 – 3
Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
9/29/20194. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 9Stadion TJ Sokol Tasovice (Tasovice pod Hodonice)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sokol Tasovice37%
×Draw23%
Vysočina Jihlava II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Tasovice
1.69
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sokol Tasovice
2.06
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.00

allows per match

Sokol Tasovice
1.49
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.32

finishing

Sokol Tasovice+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Tasovice ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sokol Tasovice or draw
60%
Sokol Tasovice or Vysočina Jihlava II
77%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II
63%

Winning margin

Sokol Tasovice wins by 2+
19%
Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sokol Tasovice 1+ goals
82%
Sokol Tasovice 2+ goals
50%
Sokol Tasovice 3+ goals
24%
Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
83%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
52%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Sokol Tasovice (draw refunded)
48%
Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Tasovice at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Tasovice attack 2.06 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.69

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 2.00 + Sokol Tasovice defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sokol Tasovice scores more
37%
level
23%
Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
40%

Vysočina Jihlava II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Tasovice vs Vysočina Jihlava II

Sokol Tasovice and Vysočina Jihlava II drew 3-3 in 4. liga - Divizie D on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Sokol Tasovice (Tasovice pod Hodonice).