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Sokol Tasovice vs Slavoj Polná — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Sokol Tasovice
Sokol Tasovice
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Slavoj Polná
Slavoj Polná
5/12/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 25Stadion TJ Sokol Tasovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Sokol Tasovice67%
×Draw17%
Slavoj Polná16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Tasovice
2.63
Slavoj Polná
1.23

Sokol Tasovice creates 114% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 54 away

creates per match

Sokol Tasovice
2.06
Slavoj Polná
0.96

allows per match

Sokol Tasovice
1.49
Slavoj Polná
3.20

finishing

Sokol Tasovice+0.00on par
Slavoj Polná+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Tasovice ↓

Slavoj Polná →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Sokol Tasovice or draw
84%
Sokol Tasovice or Slavoj Polná
83%
Draw or Slavoj Polná
33%

Winning margin

Sokol Tasovice wins by 2+
45%
Slavoj Polná wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sokol Tasovice 1+ goals
93%
Sokol Tasovice 2+ goals
73%
Sokol Tasovice 3+ goals
48%
Slavoj Polná 1+ goals
71%
Slavoj Polná 2+ goals
35%
Slavoj Polná 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sokol Tasovice (draw refunded)
81%
Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Tasovice at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

Slavoj Polná away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.20 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Tasovice attack 2.06 + Slavoj Polná defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.63

Slavoj Polná attack 0.96 + Sokol Tasovice defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sokol Tasovice scores more
67%
level
17%
Slavoj Polná scores more
16%

Sokol Tasovice at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Sokol Tasovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Tasovice vs Slavoj Polná

Slavoj Polná beat Sokol Tasovice 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Sokol Tasovice in Tasovice pod Hodonice.