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Sokol Markovo vs Yambol 1915 — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Yambol 1915
Yambol 1915
4/13/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 29Stadion Sokol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Sokol Markovo45%
×Draw24%
Yambol 191532%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Markovo
1.67
Yambol 1915
1.37

Sokol Markovo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 118 away

creates per match

Sokol Markovo
1.68
Yambol 1915
1.08

allows per match

Sokol Markovo
1.66
Yambol 1915
1.66

finishing

Sokol Markovo+0.00on par
Yambol 1915+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Markovo ↓

Yambol 1915 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sokol Markovo or draw
68%
Sokol Markovo or Yambol 1915
76%
Draw or Yambol 1915
55%

Winning margin

Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
23%
Yambol 1915 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
81%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
50%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
23%
Yambol 1915 1+ goals
75%
Yambol 1915 2+ goals
40%
Yambol 1915 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
59%
Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Markovo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.66 · 100 matches

Yambol 1915 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Markovo attack 1.68 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.67

Yambol 1915 attack 1.08 + Sokol Markovo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sokol Markovo scores more
45%
level
24%
Yambol 1915 scores more
32%

Sokol Markovo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sokol Markovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Markovo vs Yambol 1915

Yambol 1915 beat Sokol Markovo 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on April 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sokol in Markovo.