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Sokol Markovo vs Sayana Haskovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
FT
1 – 4
Sayana Haskovo
Sayana Haskovo
11/11/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 17Stadion Sokol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Sokol Markovo37%
×Draw24%
Sayana Haskovo39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Markovo
1.52
Sayana Haskovo
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 92 away

creates per match

Sokol Markovo
1.68
Sayana Haskovo
1.45

allows per match

Sokol Markovo
1.66
Sayana Haskovo
1.37

finishing

Sokol Markovo+0.00on par
Sayana Haskovo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Markovo ↓

Sayana Haskovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sokol Markovo or draw
61%
Sokol Markovo or Sayana Haskovo
76%
Draw or Sayana Haskovo
63%

Winning margin

Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
18%
Sayana Haskovo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
78%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
45%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
20%
Sayana Haskovo 1+ goals
79%
Sayana Haskovo 2+ goals
46%
Sayana Haskovo 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
49%
Sayana Haskovo (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Markovo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.66 · 100 matches

Sayana Haskovo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Markovo attack 1.68 + Sayana Haskovo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sayana Haskovo attack 1.45 + Sokol Markovo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sokol Markovo scores more
37%
level
24%
Sayana Haskovo scores more
39%

Sayana Haskovo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sayana Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Sokol Markovo 1–4 Sayana Haskovo

Sayana Haskovo beat Sokol Markovo 4-1 in Third League - Southeast on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sokol in Markovo.