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Sokol Markovo vs Rozova dolina — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
FT
1 – 2
Rozova dolina
Rozova dolina
11/19/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 16Stadion Sokol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Sokol Markovo45%
×Draw24%
Rozova dolina32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Markovo
1.71
Rozova dolina
1.40

Sokol Markovo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 136 away

creates per match

Sokol Markovo
1.68
Rozova dolina
1.13

allows per match

Sokol Markovo
1.66
Rozova dolina
1.74

finishing

Sokol Markovo+0.00on par
Rozova dolina+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Markovo ↓

Rozova dolina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sokol Markovo or draw
68%
Sokol Markovo or Rozova dolina
76%
Draw or Rozova dolina
55%

Winning margin

Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
24%
Rozova dolina wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
82%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
51%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
24%
Rozova dolina 1+ goals
75%
Rozova dolina 2+ goals
41%
Rozova dolina 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
59%
Rozova dolina (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Markovo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.66 · 100 matches

Rozova dolina away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.74 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Markovo attack 1.68 + Rozova dolina defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.71

Rozova dolina attack 1.13 + Sokol Markovo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sokol Markovo scores more
45%
level
24%
Rozova dolina scores more
32%

Sokol Markovo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sokol Markovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Sokol Markovo 1–2 Rozova dolina

Rozova dolina beat Sokol Markovo 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on November 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sokol in Markovo.