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Rozova dolina vs Sokol Markovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Rozova dolina
Rozova dolina
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
3/25/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 25Stadion Sevtopolis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Rozova dolina69%
×Draw18%
Sokol Markovo12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rozova dolina
2.27
Sokol Markovo
0.84

Rozova dolina creates 170% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 98 away

creates per match

Rozova dolina
2.10
Sokol Markovo
0.72

allows per match

Rozova dolina
0.96
Sokol Markovo
2.43

finishing

Rozova dolina+0.00on par
Sokol Markovo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rozova dolina ↓

Sokol Markovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rozova dolina or draw
88%
Rozova dolina or Sokol Markovo
82%
Draw or Sokol Markovo
31%

Winning margin

Rozova dolina wins by 2+
46%
Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rozova dolina 1+ goals
90%
Rozova dolina 2+ goals
66%
Rozova dolina 3+ goals
39%
Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
57%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
21%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rozova dolina (draw refunded)
85%
Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rozova dolina at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.96 · 135 matches

Sokol Markovo away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.43 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rozova dolina attack 2.10 + Sokol Markovo defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.27

Sokol Markovo attack 0.72 + Rozova dolina defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Rozova dolina scores more
69%
level
18%
Sokol Markovo scores more
12%

Rozova dolina at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Rozova dolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Rozova dolina 1–1 Sokol Markovo

Rozova dolina and Sokol Markovo drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sevtopolis in Kazanlak.